Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
